Post-1992 universities that underpin local prosperity in poorer areas of the UK will be hardest hit by efforts to restrict international student numbers, a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has warned.

Urging ministers not to ignore the ¡°trade-offs¡± between reducing UK immigration and pursuing economic growth in the country¡¯s most deprived areas, the report by the former Labour prime minister¡¯s thinktank highlights where the impact of policies outlined in the government¡¯s recent White Paper on immigration will be felt hardest.

According to the report, ?on 20 June, universities with lower entry requirements ¡°tend to rely more heavily on international students¡¯ fees to remain financially viable¡± and are therefore more exposed if overseas numbers drop. At the same time, these post-1992 universities, often based in less affluent communities, have much lower surpluses to cushion the impact of these losses, it says.

Given how ¡°international students¡¯ fees now prop up the finances of many institutions ¨C especially those in economically deprived areas ¨C any fall in student numbers will have consequences¡±, warns the report.

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¡°The current model cannot absorb a sudden drop without serious implications for institutional viability, course provision and access to higher education,¡± it continues, noting that many universities in regional English towns and cities are usually one of the area¡¯s biggest employers.

¡°These institutions¡¯ financial vulnerability has worrying implications for social mobility given they provide a disproportionate share of higher education opportunities for British student from the lowest income backgrounds,¡± says the report, which notes that the is expected to lead to 14,000 fewer international students coming to the UK, while 12,000 fewer students are likely to arrive each year as a result of tighter visa compliance rules.

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The impact of reducing the graduate visa from two years to 18 months is yet to be fully modelled ¡°but could push this figure higher¡±, it adds.

Given that the government faces ¡°two legitimate policy objectives¡± ¨C to reduce net migration and support economic growth and opportunity ¨C ¡°any serious conversation about reducing student migration must recognise that, under the current higher education funding model, there are trade-offs balancing these two goals¡±.

Alexander Iosad, director of government innovation policy at the Tony Blair Institute, said the report sought to highlight how ¡°our higher education system is at a breaking point, masked by years of funding from international students¡±.

¡°As the government rightly seeks to bring greater control to the immigration system, it must also confront the reality that our current model is financially unsustainable,¡± he continued.

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¡°What is needed is a fundamental transformation of the way that we fund teaching and research, as well as how universities operate. Otherwise, we risk long-term damage to the UK¡¯s global competitiveness, regional opportunity and social mobility,¡± he concluded

?jack.grove@timeshighereducation.com