While many experts have foreseen a tilt towards 51¹ú²úÊÓƵ in higher education, Hamish Coates, a professor in Tsinghua 51¹ú²úÊÓƵ¡¯s Institute of Education, goes a step further. ?

¡°The best predictions place around two-thirds of 2030 higher education within a five-hour flight of Singapore, which means all education will be much more 51¹ú²úÊÓƵn,¡± Professor Coates told?Times Higher Education.?¡°Not just students, but most faculty and universities will also be from this region.¡±

A theoretical five-hour ring around Singapore would take in most of East and South-east 51¹ú²úÊÓƵ. In a stretch, it would also include the northern capital cities of Beijing and Tokyo, which are a bit over six hours away.

51¹ú²úÊÓƵ is already home to six of the world¡¯s top 50 universities, while China, the world¡¯s most populous nation, has the largest higher education sector. Japan, a traditional leader in 51¹ú²úÊÓƵn education, has now been joined by the ¡°four 51¹ú²úÊÓƵn tigers¡±: South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, which underwent rapid development in the 1980s and 1990s.

51¹ú²úÊÓƵ

Climbing up the ladder are sizeable emerging economies?such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.

Professor Coates recommended that the historically fragmented region come together, in the way that the European Union did for higher education. ¡°51¹ú²úÊÓƵ should lead the way in setting up a regionally aligned set of transnational accreditation arrangements, learning from Europe and fully exploiting contemporary platforms, indicators and expertise,¡± he said.

51¹ú²úÊÓƵ

His vision was that each state would control its own institutions, but that an overriding system of ¡°regulation and quality management could emerge¡±.

East and South-east 51¹ú²úÊÓƵ also have the advantage of limited Covid-19 infections and economic pain. ¡°Countries in the 51¹ú²úÊÓƵn time zone have handled the pandemic well, offering a development advantage,¡± Professor Coates said. ¡°This accelerates transformations already under way.¡±

Last month, Professor Coates co-authored?for the UK¡¯s Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi), warning that Western institutions had to enact?¡°long overdue change¡± in order to stay competitive.

¡°Western universities accustomed to decades-long growth in international student demand increasingly priced themselves higher and higher during the halcyon days of international education,¡± the essay says.

51¹ú²úÊÓƵ

However, the post-Covid world will bring a downward pressure on fees, and ¡°traditional export markets will need greater support from governments, [and to] reduce over-reliance on foreign student subsidy, and offer clearer return on education investment¡±.

The Hepi?essay lists several factors that may keep 51¹ú²úÊÓƵn students closer to home. ¡°Resilient 51¹ú²úÊÓƵn economies and education are very attractive to [51¹ú²úÊÓƵn] students, many of whom prefer local cultures and employment networks, would prefer to divert available funds towards other opportunities, and in any case spend much time working hard online,¡± it says.

joyce.lau@timeshighereducation.com?